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Governed prediction-market intelligence
Turn governed market evidence into a private, point-in-time thesis. Compare your probability with the market, revise when facts change, and learn from every resolved outcome.
Window Aug 5–Aug 12 · generated 8/12/2026, 3:47:09 PM UTC
Research only. Not financial advice. Crypto and general-market evidence remain separate; forecasts are timestamped before resolution.
Track record
Auditable · Transparent · Accountable
Three things we do
Model probabilities on 300+ Kalshi markets, timestamped before resolution. Every signal shows probability, edge, and decision gates.
How signals work →Review governed evidence, record a structured thesis, revise when facts change, and learn from the resolved outcome. Your thesis stays private.
Open research beta →Compare published research configurations using transparent, gate-checked backtests. Following tracks evidence privately and never grants order authority.
Browse strategies →The private research beta connects governed evidence, forecasts, revisions, calibration, and post-resolution lessons in one auditable loop.
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One email per week: top Kalshi signals, model accuracy updates, and any new features. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
No. Forecast Alpha is a research and decision-support tool. It is not financial advice and does not guarantee outcomes.
No. Order submission is disabled by code-level platform policy. Evidence, reconciliation, account controls, and explicit authorization are necessary but not sufficient gates for any separately reviewed future capital program; passing them does not enable orders.
Every model read is timestamped before markets resolve. The record is public and auditable — forecasts cannot be changed after outcomes are known.
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