Forecast Alpha

Prediction-market research terminal

Prediction-market signals, a verified track record, and auto-execution on Kalshi.

Transparent model probabilities, calibrated forecasts timestamped before markets resolve, and an automated copy-trading engine that executes your personal strategy on your own Kalshi account.

Research only. Not financial advice. Forecasts are timestamped before resolution. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Forecast Alpha Terminal
Live signal read
verified record
Model
64.2%
fair probability
Market
57.0%
venue implied
Edge
+5.2c
after modeled costs
BTC closes above target this hour?
Kalshi crypto contract — point-in-time forecast
Signal
Side
YES
Confidence
0.62
Liquidity
82
Record
logged
Calibration grid
predicted vs resolved
10%
30%
50%
70%
90%
Decision gates
quote freshclear
spread4c
risk noteRTI basis
actionrecorded
KXBTCmodel 64%market 57%+5.2c EV
KXETHwatchspread 7cno trade
FEDmodel 71%market 68%calibrating
live

Track record

Auditable · Transparent · Accountable

46k
Resolved forecasts
timestamped before outcome
0.085
Recent Brier score
lower is better · calibrated
7.9k
Active signals
latest 24h model reads
9.5k
Markets tracked
live event universe
v3.0.0
Model version
versioned audit trail

Why it exists

Know when the market looks mispriced, and when the right answer is wait.

Prediction markets are noisy. A useful terminal should show probability, edge, evidence, and refusal conditions in the same view. Forecast Alpha is built around that discipline.

01

Transparent probabilities

Compare model probability, market-implied probability, confidence, and EV after modeled costs without hiding the assumptions.

02

Kalshi crypto research

Short-term crypto contracts are scored with spot context, realized volatility, candle structure, strike distance, liquidity, and risk notes.

03

Point-in-time accountability

Forecasts are timestamped and versioned before settlement so the track record can be checked after markets resolve.

Research loop

From market read to verified record.

1

Read live prediction markets, crypto prices, candles, news, and market metadata.

2

Estimate fair probability and separate raw disagreement from tradable edge.

3

Gate for liquidity, timing, ambiguity, volatility, and execution risk.

4

Record every model read so performance can be judged after resolution.

Signal anatomy

The product should explain every decision.

1
Evidence
prices + candles + metadata
2
Model
64.2% fair probability
3
Gates
spread, liquidity, ambiguity
4
Record
timestamped before resolve
Decision gatesclear
quote fresh
ok
spread
4c
risk note
RTI basis
action
recorded
Beta · Free

Your strategy, auto-executed on your Kalshi account.

Configure your own signal filters and position sizing. Once your backtest meets quality criteria, the engine executes qualifying signals automatically — every 15 minutes, on your account, with your funds.

Your keys, your account

Funds stay in your Kalshi account. We execute via your API key — no pooled capital.

Backtest gate before go-live

30 trades, ≥50% win rate, positive expectancy, and ≥1.2 profit factor before the engine fires.

Shareable track record

Every strategy gets a public performance page showing your config, backtest, and live results.

Free to start

Research first. PRO when the workflow matters.

Public signals, crypto terminal, calibration, and the track record stay accessible. PRO adds the deeper research stack for scanners, workspaces, screeners, alerts, and portfolio analytics.

Compare plans
Free
$0
Signal feed and dashboard
Public track record
Crypto terminal
Calibration tracking
PRO
Research stack
Scanner and screeners
Workspaces and briefs
Portfolio risk analytics

Explore markets

Built for Kalshi, crypto, macro, and event research.

Category pages make it easier to inspect active markets, compare implied probabilities, and move from a public overview into a deeper signal view.
CategoryMarketsModelEdge
Kalshi crypto
signal
128
61%
+5.2c
Macro events
calibrate
94
48%
watch
Fed markets
review
36
72%
+2.1c
Company events
risk
57
39%
no trade
Track-record pulse
0.075
recent Brier
32k
resolved

No profit promises. No public trading bot positioning.

Forecast Alpha is a research and decision-support tool. Public pages focus on signals, calibration, track record, and paper workflows. Prediction markets, crypto, and equities involve significant risk including total loss.

Data · Clarity · Confidence

FAQ

Is Forecast Alpha financial advice?

No. Forecast Alpha is a research and decision-support tool. It is not financial advice and does not guarantee outcomes.

Does Forecast Alpha place trades on my account?

Only if you opt in to copy-trading. Users can configure a personal strategy that auto-executes on their own Kalshi account — funds stay in your account at all times. The research terminal itself does not place any trades.

What markets does Forecast Alpha cover?

The product focuses on prediction markets, Kalshi crypto contracts, macro and event markets, and related research workflows.

How is performance verified?

Model reads are timestamped, versioned, and compared with market outcomes after resolution to build a public track record.